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Rainbow Roxy's avatar

Thanks for writing this, it clarifies alot. Is just asking enough when problems get really complex, or does understanding the context still matter most? Really insightful piece.

Michael Maiorano's avatar

Great read, thanks! 🙏 a few thoughts

1. I think your framework is adequate in explaining the pattern for the next 3 years, absolutely. After that, it’s fair to say we are all guessing.

2. Further to 1, I believe a framework for what work and careers like has to focus heavily on an “industrial organization” lens. Meaning, decomposing the value chains of any particular service, and looking at how AI and humans factor in at specific points in the value chain. That analysis is fairly straightforward, but becomes complicated because the client industry is decomposed as well as the service providers industry.

3. Another piece of the analysis is grappling with the likelihood that 50% of service white collar jobs will be eliminated in the next 5 years. If we look at one industry, say Big law, we’d assume that those people (highly educated) get replaced into other industries. In this moment, that assumption fails because ALL industries are reduced by 50%…. So how do we model that?

4. My answer to 4 is to imagine a sort of entrepreneurial boom. Meaning that smart people with no formal jobs will create new products, services and industries. I’ve seen that happen in the past namely in tech. However we are talking about a massively different scale here… but this point (4) is probably the most interesting to unpack. It’s looking at the second - fourth order effects of industrial change, in value chains and then in the labor market.

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